Migration figures fall sharply as Burnham signals shift on key policies

Andy Burnham has acknowledged that net migration in the UK “must decline further”, despite government figures revealing the figure has almost halved since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor and Labour’s by-election candidate in Makerfield provided these observations after the ONS reported on Thursday that migration brought 171,000 people to the UK’s population last year — the lowest level since 2012, outside of the Covid pandemic. Burnham said constituents have “expressed concerns regarding immigration” with him on the doorstep, and whilst he supports the “main thrust” of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposed changes to increase the difficulty for migrants to establish permanent residence, he stressed the government must “achieve the correct equilibrium” on the contentious policy.

Net migration records lowest level in over ten years

The most recent Office for National Statistics data represents a significant turning point in the UK’s migration direction. The figure of 171,000 indicates the lowest annual net migration since 2012, a dramatic reversal from the record highs observed in recent years. This significant drop demonstrates the government’s concerted efforts to strengthen visa policy and lower total migration numbers through tougher visa conditions and stricter enforcement.

The progress has not gone unnoticed by Labour leadership, who view the figures as proof that their migration approach is yielding tangible results. However, officials have warned that further reductions are necessary to achieve their long-term objectives. The Home Office has cautioned that without additional policy changes, roughly 1.6 million people could obtain lasting residency between 2026 and 2030, driving the government’s push for stricter residency requirements.

• Net migration dropped from record highs to lowest level since 2012
• 171,000 people added to UK population through migration gains last year
• Government plans to make permanent settlement considerably more difficult for migrants
• Home Office forecasts 1.6m potential settlers without policy changes

Settlement rules undergo significant reform amid political debate

The government’s initiatives to make stricter settlement rules have triggered considerable disagreement within Labour’s internal ranks, with a number of high-ranking officials openly challenging the retrospective nature of the planned amendments. Ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been notably critical in her objections, describing the policy as “un-British” and criticised the government of “moving the goalposts” on people moving to the UK who have already begun establishing themselves in the UK. These concerns underscore significant rifts within the party over how to balance controlling immigration with humanitarian values and equity.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has defended the proposals as essential and equitable, maintaining they are essential to prevent what she describes as a “drain on our public finances”. She has highlighted that the changes are measured approaches to anticipated intake levels that could reach 1.6 million people between 2026 and 2030 without measures. The public consultation on these controversial measures will be essential in ascertaining whether the authorities can reach a compromise that pleases both tough-line advocates and those worried by the social effects of tougher regulations.

What these proposed changes entail

Settlement, officially termed indefinite leave to remain, grants individuals the right to reside, work and pursue education in the UK permanently, whilst also enabling them to access certain state benefits if qualified. The proposed governmental modifications would significantly increase the difficulty for non-UK nationals to achieve this position, thereby limiting long-term residency opportunities. This represents a significant policy shift designed to control population growth and reduce forecast settlement figures considerably over the following years.

• Settlement grants lasting entitlement to reside and work in UK
• Proposed changes would make permanent residence substantially tougher to obtain
• Policy aims to reduce 1.6m projected settlements from 2026 to 2030

Burnham changes stance on controversial social topics

Andy Burnham has indicated a marked shift in his stance towards single-sex spaces, recognising that his views have evolved in light of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission updated guidance on the matter. The Mayor of Greater Manchester told the BBC on Friday that he now endorses the Supreme Court ruling defining a woman under the Equality Act as determined by biological sex, stating it “has to be implemented”. This represents a significant shift from his earlier position, when he suggested that worries regarding trans women in women’s toilets were shared by only a “small minority”.

Burnham emphasised, however, that whilst accepting the regulatory structure, the implementation must be handled with sensitivity and compassion. He stressed that the ruling should not become “a kind of triumph against other people in society” and cautioned against further marginalising already vulnerable groups. His carefully calibrated position seeks to balance legal obligations with social responsibility, demonstrating broader Labour tensions over how to navigate increasingly divided discussions around questions of gender and equality.

The progression of his approach

When asked about whether his position had shifted, Burnham was forthright, telling journalists: “I’ll be honest, yes. I’ve tracked the discussion as it’s gone along over the years.” His admission demonstrates a readiness to reconsider established positions in light of legislative changes and community engagement, demonstrating the fluidity of political positioning on contentious social matters within the party.

Electoral contest intensifies in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham’s comments on social policy and immigration occur as Labour gears up for a crucial by-election battle in Makerfield, a historically secure Labour seat in the Greater Manchester area. The by-election, prompted by the resignation of incumbent MP Mike Jevons, represents a substantial challenge of the party’s position in a traditional stronghold where concerns among working-class voters about public services and immigration have consistently dominated political discussion at local level. Burnham’s preparedness to recognise concerns among the public about migration whilst defending the government’s overarching approach implies Labour is keenly aware of the political sensitivities attending these matters in previously industrial regions.

The Makerfield contest holds significant symbolic importance, as the constituency has been represented by Labour since 1997 and any substantial shift away from the party would reverberate across Westminster. Burnham’s high-profile campaigning in the seat underscores Labour’s determination to hold the line, whilst his shift in approach to major policy matters signals an attempt to address voter concerns head-on rather than dismiss them. The by-election outcome will provide an early barometer of whether the government’s approach of recognising public feeling whilst upholding progressive policies can successfully navigate the complex political landscape of contemporary British politics.

• Makerfield controlled by Labour from 1997 without significant challenge
• Election prompted by incumbent Member of Parliament Mike Jevons’ resignation
• Result will indicate government’s electoral strength in core Labour areas